A new study predicts dementia cases in England and Wales will double to 1.7 million by 2040, exceeding previous forecasts by over 40%. The research, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council and published in The Lancet Public Health, indicates that dementia incidence decreased by 28.8% between 2002 and 2008. However, it increased again by 25.2% between 2008 and 2016.
Researchers also found that that disparities in the rate of dementia incidence were increasing between education groups. Although an increase in dementia cases has often been attributed to an ageing population, the researchers also found that the rate of dementia onset within older age groups is also increasing.
Principal investigator, Professor Eric Brunner (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care), said: “We don’t know how long this pattern will continue but the UK needs to be prepared so we can ensure that everyone affected, whatever their financial circumstances, is able to access the help and support that they need.”
Hilary Evans, Chief Executive at Alzheimer's Research UK, said: “This news highlights the enormous threat dementia poses, for both the public and for our already overstretched health and care workforce. As these figures show, unless urgent action is taken, dementia is set to place a huge and increasing burden on our healthcare system, and to blight millions of futures.
“With more people expected to be living with dementia in the future, healthcare decision makers need to wake up and put steps in place to radically improve both how the condition is diagnosed and invest in capacity to do so. Too many people continue to experience unacceptable delays, and waiting times frequently fall short of the government's 67% target in many regions. This is only going to get worse unless decisive government steps are taken to confront this crisis.
“It doesn’t have to be like this. These statistics also highlight the important role that social factors play on people’s risk of dementia, meaning some groups in society are being put at a worrying disadvantage. The study suggests that, since 2008, dementia rates have increased more rapidly among people who’d left education at a younger age. As we continue our efforts to find a cure, the government must ensure it takes action so that the burden of increased dementia risk does not unfairly weigh on the most deprived communities and regions. And we want people to know the steps they can take to reduce their own risk of developing dementia, such as keeping a healthy heart, staying connected and staying sharp.
“With new treatments for Alzheimer’s disease – the leading cause of dementia – finally on the horizon, we are now in the strongest position yet to bring an end to the devastation this condition causes. Now we must keep up this momentum if we are to free individuals and society from the fear, harm and heartbreak of dementia.’’
