The NHS in England risks its traditionally poorer levels of performance in winter becoming the norm in summer, reveals an extensive analysis of the last five years of data by leading health charities the Nuffield Trust and the Health Foundation.
The report shows that problems that are usually observed only during the winter months are increasingly being seen at other times of year – which meant that the NHS entered winter 2015/16 from a historically poor starting point. The authors argue that this could lead to a ‘downward spiral’ in performance.
Winter pressures: what’s going on behind the scenes?also demonstrates that last winter (2014/15) was the most difficult for the NHS since weekly figures began to be collected, despite weather conditions not being especially bad. This leads to fears that the current winter could be
tougher still. However, it also highlights the fact that in some areas – such as A&E closures, and the average length of time patients spend in A&E – the NHS has been coping well with winter pressures.
The number of trolley waits has increased substantially since 2010, when the figure was almost 14,000, but last winter reached a peak of 45,000 in December 2014 – this number comprised 9% of all patients where there was a decision to admit them to hospital, and 2% of all A&E attendance. The researchers show that although the number of patients waiting still peaks in winter, the number subject to trolley waits in summer is also increasing. The analysis also demonstrates that ambulance response times, which have traditionally suffered a dip in performance in winter, are now recording worsening performance every summer, too.
