A King’s Fund report, Spending on health and social care over the next 50 years, states that health and social care could account for half of all Government spending within 50 years.
Changes to the population, increases in wealth and medical advances will increase pressures to spend more on health and social care in the future, says the report. The ageing population will also be a factor although – contrary to popular perception – this is likely to drive only a small proportion of the increase. The report also compares the situation in the UK with that in other countries which showed that spending on health and social care in the UK is currently around the average among industrialised nations and that other countries are facing similar pressures to spend more in the years ahead. The report calls for an informed public debate about these choices – including whether taxation or borrowing should rise to pay for increased spending or the scope of publicly funded services should be limited, with individuals paying more through user charges or private insurance. It also recommends that regular reviews of spending pressures should be commissioned to inform public debate and future spending decisions. The report stresses that increases will depend on a number of factors. However, it highlights the potentially significant implications for the public purse and other Government budgets if spending on healthcare continues to follow historic trends. This would suggest that difficult choices lie ahead about how much to spend and how to fund this. The UK currently spends around 9% of its national income on health and social care, more than twice as much as 50 years ago. This could more than double again to nearly 20% by 2061, according to forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
