The Health Foundation has published new analysis, which sets out its assessment of how feasible the government’s 18-week elective care target is.
Based on historic trends, the Health Foundation suggests that the target is achievable but there will need to be a significant rise in extra treatments every year (an annual increase of 2.4%) until the end of parliament. It will also significantly depend on what happens to the rate of referrals. The key findings include:
- Meeting the target will require the number of people being removed from the waiting list (for treatment or other reasons) to increase from 20.8 million a year in July 2024, to 23.5 million a year in July 2029. This corresponds to around 500,000 extra treatments in the first year, rising to 2.6 million extra treatments in the final year, an annual increase of 2.4%.
- This increase in treatments looks achievable based on historical trends, but whether it is enough to meet the 18-week standard will also depend on how fast referrals increase. The Health Foundation has assumed referrals will continue to grow at 1.5% per year; if they rise faster, treatments will also need to rise further.
- The government’s promise of 2 million extra appointments should be enough to achieve the additional 500,000 treatments needed in the first year. However, this leaves a significant gap between the additional appointments committed to in the first year of the parliament and the increases that will be needed in subsequent years.
The analysis concludes that experience from the 2000s shows that the 18-week standard can be met. However, the Health Foundation adds that the last Labour government achieved this in more promising economic circumstances, over a longer period of time and with more significant increases in investment than are likely to be available this time. Given this, improving elective care productivity is vital. It is also essential that the priority given to elective care does not distract from addressing pressing needs in other areas of care, including urgent and emergency care and primary care.
To view the full analysis, visit: https://www.health.org.uk/reports-and-analysis/analysis/government-s-plan-for-18-week-nhs-waiting-times-is-it-realistic.
